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As the first quarter of 2013 came to a close, most U.S. data continued to suggest that the underlying growth momentum of the domestic economy was stronger than expected.
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Modern portfolio theory (MPT) introduces the idea of an efficient frontier which is the set of portfolios that have
the maximum possible expected level of return
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To date, 2013 has presented capital markets with a host of political and fiscal hurdles with which to contend - yet our outlook remains broadly unchanged
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As anticipated, 4Q U.S. economic growth was challenged by transitory factors related to Hurricane Sandy and the fiscal cliff debate.
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With the eyes of the world focused on the U.S. fiscal cliff debate in December, optimists, realists, and even a few pessimists harbored some degree of hope
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With a substantial portion of the inflation-adjusted yield curve offering negative yields, many investors are wondering if now is the time to shift their asset allocation away from TIPS and into other fixed income asset classes.
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Roughly one month has passed since the highly charged (and surprisingly anticlimactic) U.S. Presidential election, and domestic economic conditions remain broadly consistent with the environment we faced in November.
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While the combination of a frenetic U.S. Presidential election and a powerful hurricane named Sandy still weighs heavily on hearts and minds everywhere
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For investors who subscribe to astrology or Farmers Almanac proverbs, the third quarter of 2012 bore an uncanny resemblance to the age-old meteorological adage synonymous with the month of March.
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The monetary policy uncertainty that was building throughout the summer reached a crescendo at the end of August...
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Global financial markets sought clarity in July given an environment of slowing growth, disparate central bank rhetoric, and rising political uncertainty.
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In order to capture the benefits of emerging market debt, we believe institutional investors should have exposure to both the local currency and external USD-denominated segments of the market.
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While we certainly wish things were different, the second quarter of 2012 sputtered to a close with the major risks underpinning our challenged outlook for global growth still largely intact.
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In previous economic downturns, the Federal Reserve (the Fed) would encourage consumer spending by taking steps to lower borrowing rates.
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Recently the Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) reported that first quarter U.S. GDP grew at a 1.9% annualized rate, modestly slower than previously thought.
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Initial government estimates showed U.S. GDP growth slowing in the first quarter of 2012 to 2.2%. This represented a meaningful drop from the 3% growth rate in the fourth quarter of last year.
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For inflation investors, the economic crosscurrents today are similar to that of a year ago.
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The first quarter of 2012 saw risk assets buoyed by improving U.S. economic growth and improved European sentiment following large liquidity injections by the European Central Bank (ECB).
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Financial asset prices are a reflection of the current environment as well as future expectations,
but often, rising or falling prices feed back into the shaping of expectations themselves.
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On balance, recent data suggests the U.S. economy may be demonstrating some long-awaited
resilience. With a number of key indicators exhibiting tentative signs of improvement.
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2011 proved to be a challenging year for the U.S. economy.
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While the performance of the high yield market (4.98% in 2011, based on the Barclays Capital U.S. Corporate High Yield Index) was close to our 6-7% expectation a year ago, the volatility experienced in achieving this return was much higher than we expected.
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Consumer spending continued to drive improvements in GDP projections in December.
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The recovery in spending that began in the third quarter of 2011 gained momentum in November, even as personal income growth continued to stagnate.
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Our growth expectations have stayed steadily below the consensus forecast.
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While it appeared that the outlook for the global economy was initially improving at the beginning of the year, this very quickly gave way to a number of headwinds.
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The municipal market did not undergo a transformation, but rather a return to its roots.
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Earlier in the year, as events were unfolding and forecasts were being made, we came to the conclusion that in spite of slow economic growth, inflation would trend higher and remain firmer than what was broadly anticipated by the market.
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Bank loans can be a tricky asset class to manage as far as liquidity, given that they can take as long as 2-3 weeks to settle.
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While the possibility of a U.S. recession remains, we believe the probability of such an event has declined. This is primarily due to improvements in U.S. consumer spending, which continued to modestly increase in September.
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The European debt crisis has wreaked havoc for most of this year, with a seemingly continuous stream of negative news. To better understand the depth of the crisis and potential long-term impacts, we turned toour extensive credit research teams.
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We expect that the U.S. economy grew by 2% over the third quarter of 2011. This is not the recession scenario that many feared, but it is not a hardy outcome either.
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The High Yield market ended the quarter with a thud, posting a -3.27% return in September on top of the -4.00% in August.
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The High Yield market dropped rather precipitously in August, with spreads widening 167bps to 697bps and the market down 4% for the month, bringing year-to-date performance to 1.94%.
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Economic view is cautious, but corporate fundamentals remain strong. De-risking amidst a volatile macro economy. Balancing yield and capital preservation.
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The U.S. debt ceiling agreement in August was a rather feeble attempt at restoring financial health.
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Headline inflation steady, core inflation may trend higher. Breakevens' underestimating future inflation. Balancing interest rate risk and risk-adjusted returns
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The term emerging markets is synonymous with high risk. This is not surprising, if you consider that the word 'emerge' means to 'rise from an obscure or inferior position.'
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Today's bank loan market is vastly different than in 2008. Corporate earnings and balance sheets remain strong. Technical weakness exists, but fundamental analysis can help minimize default risk through a full economic cycle
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Fundamentals should continue to improve. Positive technical landscape is driving municipal performance. Extensive fundamental credit analysis is critical to identifying compelling opportunities.
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Fundamentals suggest continued opportunity in credit sectors. Diversification within and across sectors can help minimize risk. Bottom-up analysis is key to identifying relative value.
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At the time of this writing, there are still competing proposals to legislate an increase in the debt ceiling.
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Over the last decade, the Bank Loan asset class has witnessed and survived some of the most volatile economic and market environments for investment products in history.
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Despite the official start of summer, investors had very little to cheer about last month. June marked the third consecutive month of softer economic data, perpetuating the weaker trend that began in April.
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U.S. economic data, which began weakening in April, only weakened further in May. While most data points over the two-month period reflected slower growth, the data for housing, manufacturing, and employment were particularly impacted.
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We think there are some sizable imbalances that continue to exert a significant drag on the economy.
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Economic growth will likely remain moderate for an extended period of time due to the deleveraging process that still needs to take place for households and government.
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Following a robust fourth quarter in 2010, the economy continued to gain momentum during the first quarter of 2011.
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Bank loan defaults peaked in November 2009. Since then, defaults have plummeted to below 1% and loan prices have climbed back to near par.
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Ironically, the municipal outflows (lack of demand) earlier this year were largely attributable to the investor perception that a fiscal crisis for municipal issuers around the country was imminent.
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The effects of the global crisis and the subsequent level of global imbalances will make it incredibly challenging for the market to function normally without systematic global coordination.
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Featuring Ray Humphrey, CFA, Senior Vice President and Senior Portfolio Manager and John Hendricks, Senior Vice President and
Senior Portfolio Manager
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The Investment Strategy Committee (ISC) is made up of seasoned investment professionals at Hartford Investment Management. Its role is to determine the firm's view on cyclical and secular trends in the macro-economy and to set the firm's top-down view on interest rates, yield curve and sector positioning.
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The Investment Strategy Committee (ISC) is made up of seasoned investment professionals at Hartford Investment Management. Its role is to determine the firm's view on cyclical and secular trends in the macro-economy and to set the firm's top-down view on interest rates, yield curve and sector positioning.
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Are the best days of growth for Emerging Markets behind us? Not according to U.S. CEOs. Just listen to the corporate earnings call of any large U.S. multinational company.
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As we enter the second quarter of 2011, signs of an economic recovery continue. The ISM Purchasing Managers Index is at its highest level since 1980.
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Core and Core Plus fixed income strategies have been the mainstays of institutional investors' fixed income portfolios for the past few decades. Certainly these strategies have a logical appeal.
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With federal budget deficits expanding, the substantial economic stimulus and rising commodity prices, investors are becoming increasingly concerned about the potential for higher taxes and inflation.
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The Investment Strategy Committee (ISC) is made up of seasoned investment professionals at Hartford Investment Management. Its role is to determine the firm's view on cyclical and secular trends in the macro-economy and to set the firm's top-down view on interest rates, yield curve and sector positioning.
Read More.
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There are two opposing dynamics pulling at inflation rates. Home values are falling while commodity prices are rising. The result has been low measured inflation.
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The Investment Strategy Committee (ISC) is made up of seasoned investment professionals at Hartford Investment Management. Its role is to determine the firm's view on cyclical and secular trends in the macro-economy and to set the firm's top-down view on interest rates, yield curve and sector positioning.
Read More.
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The high yield market kicked off the year with a very strong start, returning 2.21% for January, just shy of the 2.37% returned by the S&P 500 Index but ahead of small-cap stocks, which were slightly negative on the month.
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If the economy has recovered, why aren't we feeling the impact? The value of U.S. GDP peaked in December 2007 at $13.3 trillion before the great recession.
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Over the fourth quarter of 2010, the municipal market experienced several distinct periods of volatility.
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The Federal Funds target rate has now been unchanged at 0.25% for over two years. As a result the 2 year U.S. Treasury note has been anchored at historically low yields, ranging from 0.34% to 1.41% over the last two years; it reached the low end of that range just a few months ago.
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The bank loan index finished the year at 9.97% versus the 6-7% we forecasted. Although our macro-economic forecast was right on (positive, albeit tepid GDP growth for the year) we underestimated the massive reappearance of the high yield bond and bank loan markets.
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The Investment Strategy Committee (ISC) is made up of seasoned investment professionals at Hartford Investment Management. Its role is to determine the firm's view on cyclical and secular trends in the macro-economy and to set the firm's top-down view on interest rates, yield curve and sector positioning.
Read More.
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Before the market came to know Black Swans, investors had to contend with event risk. With this black bird of disaster fading from the collective psyche
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