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Dow
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12,442.49 |
0.00 |
0.00%
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Nasdaq
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2,813.69 |
0.00 |
0.00%
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S&P 500
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1,304.86 |
-19.94 |
-1.50%
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30 Year Bond(%)
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2.81%
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0 |
0.00%
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10 Year Note(%)
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1.70%
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0 |
0.00%
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5 Year Note(%)
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0.73%
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0 |
0.00%
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13 Week Bill(%)
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0.09%
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0 |
0.00%
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As of Friday, May 18, 8:07 AM |
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Initial government estimates showed U.S. GDP growth slowing in the first quarter of 2012 to 2.2%. This represented a meaningful drop from the 3% growth rate in the fourth quarter of last year.
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For inflation investors, the economic crosscurrents today are similar to that of a year ago.
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The first quarter of 2012 saw risk assets buoyed by improving U.S. economic growth and improved European sentiment following large liquidity injections by the European Central Bank (ECB).
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Financial asset prices are a reflection of the current environment as well as future expectations,
but often, rising or falling prices feed back into the shaping of expectations themselves.
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On balance, recent data suggests the U.S. economy may be demonstrating some long-awaited
resilience. With a number of key indicators exhibiting tentative signs of improvement.
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2011 proved to be a challenging year for the U.S. economy.
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While the performance of the high yield market (4.98% in 2011, based on the Barclays Capital U.S. Corporate High Yield Index) was close to our 6-7% expectation a year ago, the volatility experienced in achieving this return was much higher than we expected.
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Consumer spending continued to drive improvements in GDP projections in December.
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The European debt crisis has wreaked havoc for most of this year, with a seemingly continuous stream of negative news. To better understand the depth of the crisis and potential long-term impacts, we turned toour extensive credit research teams.
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The recovery in spending that began in the third quarter of 2011 gained momentum in November, even as personal income growth continued to stagnate.
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Our growth expectations have stayed steadily below the consensus forecast.
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While it appeared that the outlook for the global economy was initially improving at the beginning of the year, this very quickly gave way to a number of headwinds.
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The municipal market did not undergo a transformation, but rather a return to its roots.
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Earlier in the year, as events were unfolding and forecasts were being made, we came to the conclusion that in spite of slow economic growth, inflation would trend higher and remain firmer than what was broadly anticipated by the market.
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Bank loans can be a tricky asset class to manage as far as liquidity, given that they can take as long as 2-3 weeks to settle.
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While the possibility of a U.S. recession remains, we believe the probability of such an event has declined. This is primarily due to improvements in U.S. consumer spending, which continued to modestly increase in September.
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We expect that the U.S. economy grew by 2% over the third quarter of 2011. This is not the recession scenario that many feared, but it is not a hardy outcome either.
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The High Yield market ended the quarter with a thud, posting a -3.27% return in September on top of the -4.00% in August.
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The High Yield market dropped rather precipitously in August, with spreads widening 167bps to 697bps and the market down 4% for the month, bringing year-to-date performance to 1.94%.
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Economic view is cautious, but corporate fundamentals remain strong. De-risking amidst a volatile macro economy. Balancing yield and capital preservation.
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The U.S. debt ceiling agreement in August was a rather feeble attempt at restoring financial health.
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Headline inflation steady, core inflation may trend higher. Breakevens' underestimating future inflation. Balancing interest rate risk and risk-adjusted returns
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The term emerging markets is synonymous with high risk. This is not surprising, if you consider that the word 'emerge' means to 'rise from an obscure or inferior position.'
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Today's bank loan market is vastly different than in 2008. Corporate earnings and balance sheets remain strong. Technical weakness exists, but fundamental analysis can help minimize default risk through a full economic cycle
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Fundamentals should continue to improve. Positive technical landscape is driving municipal performance. Extensive fundamental credit analysis is critical to identifying compelling opportunities.
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Fundamentals suggest continued opportunity in credit sectors. Diversification within and across sectors can help minimize risk. Bottom-up analysis is key to identifying relative value.
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At the time of this writing, there are still competing proposals to legislate an increase in the debt ceiling.
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Over the last decade, the Bank Loan asset class has witnessed and survived some of the most volatile economic and market environments for investment products in history.
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Despite the official start of summer, investors had very little to cheer about last month. June marked the third consecutive month of softer economic data, perpetuating the weaker trend that began in April.
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U.S. economic data, which began weakening in April, only weakened further in May. While most data points over the two-month period reflected slower growth, the data for housing, manufacturing, and employment were particularly impacted.
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We think there are some sizable imbalances that continue to exert a significant drag on the economy.
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Economic growth will likely remain moderate for an extended period of time due to the deleveraging process that still needs to take place for households and government.
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Following a robust fourth quarter in 2010, the economy continued to gain momentum during the first quarter of 2011.
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Bank loan defaults peaked in November 2009. Since then, defaults have plummeted to below 1% and loan prices have climbed back to near par.
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Ironically, the municipal outflows (lack of demand) earlier this year were largely attributable to the investor perception that a fiscal crisis for municipal issuers around the country was imminent.
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The effects of the global crisis and the subsequent level of global imbalances will make it incredibly challenging for the market to function normally without systematic global coordination.
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Featuring Ray Humphrey, CFA, Senior Vice President and Senior Portfolio Manager and John Hendricks, Senior Vice President and
Senior Portfolio Manager
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The Investment Strategy Committee (ISC) is made up of seasoned investment professionals at Hartford Investment Management. Its role is to determine the firm's view on cyclical and secular trends in the macro-economy and to set the firm's top-down view on interest rates, yield curve and sector positioning.
Read More.
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The Investment Strategy Committee (ISC) is made up of seasoned investment professionals at Hartford Investment Management. Its role is to determine the firm's view on cyclical and secular trends in the macro-economy and to set the firm's top-down view on interest rates, yield curve and sector positioning.
Read More.
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Are the best days of growth for Emerging Markets behind us? Not according to U.S. CEOs. Just listen to the corporate earnings call of any large U.S. multinational company.
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As we enter the second quarter of 2011, signs of an economic recovery continue. The ISM Purchasing Managers Index is at its highest level since 1980.
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Core and Core Plus fixed income strategies have been the mainstays of institutional investors' fixed income portfolios for the past few decades. Certainly these strategies have a logical appeal.
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With federal budget deficits expanding, the substantial economic stimulus and rising commodity prices, investors are becoming increasingly concerned about the potential for higher taxes and inflation.
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The Investment Strategy Committee (ISC) is made up of seasoned investment professionals at Hartford Investment Management. Its role is to determine the firm's view on cyclical and secular trends in the macro-economy and to set the firm's top-down view on interest rates, yield curve and sector positioning.
Read More.
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There are two opposing dynamics pulling at inflation rates. Home values are falling while commodity prices are rising. The result has been low measured inflation.
Read More.
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The Investment Strategy Committee (ISC) is made up of seasoned investment professionals at Hartford Investment Management. Its role is to determine the firm's view on cyclical and secular trends in the macro-economy and to set the firm's top-down view on interest rates, yield curve and sector positioning.
Read More.
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The high yield market kicked off the year with a very strong start, returning 2.21% for January, just shy of the 2.37% returned by the S&P 500 Index but ahead of small-cap stocks, which were slightly negative on the month.
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If the economy has recovered, why aren't we feeling the impact? The value of U.S. GDP peaked in December 2007 at $13.3 trillion before the great recession.
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Over the fourth quarter of 2010, the municipal market experienced several distinct periods of volatility.
Read More.
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Economic activity improved markedly in the fourth quarter. The suggestion of expanded money supply created positive momentum that was reinforced with the commencement of the quantitative easing (QE2) program.
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The Federal Funds target rate has now been unchanged at 0.25% for over two years. As a result the 2 year U.S. Treasury note has been anchored at historically low yields, ranging from 0.34% to 1.41% over the last two years; it reached the low end of that range just a few months ago.
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The bank loan index finished the year at 9.97% versus the 6-7% we forecasted. Although our macro-economic forecast was right on (positive, albeit tepid GDP growth for the year) we underestimated the massive reappearance of the high yield bond and bank loan markets.
Read More.
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The Investment Strategy Committee (ISC) is made up of seasoned investment professionals at Hartford Investment Management. Its role is to determine the firm's view on cyclical and secular trends in the macro-economy and to set the firm's top-down view on interest rates, yield curve and sector positioning.
Read More.
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Before the market came to know Black Swans, investors had to contend with event risk. With this black bird of disaster fading from the collective psyche
Read More.
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The Investment Strategy Committee (ISC) is made up of seasoned investment professionals at Hartford Investment Management. Its role is to determine the firm's view on cyclical and secular trends in the macro-economy and to set the firm's top-down view on interest rates, yield curve and sector positioning.
Read More.
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September's employment data indicated a continued lack of momentum in the economy. Employment growth was temporarily boosted by census workers and began sagging as their employment term reached its end.
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GDP growth slowed in the second quarter to 1.6% from 2.4%. The disappointing GDP number was reflective of an increase in imports and a slowdown in private investment.
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While another 50% plus year in terms of total return is impossible given current price levels, we believe attractive returns may still be realized in High Yield bonds. We are currently in an environment in which the total return for High Yield bonds is primarily comprised of coupon income rather than capital appreciation (as we saw in 2009).
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While global concerns have tapered, U.S. economic outlook remains uncertain. The increased market volatility that began in May 2010, caused by external catalysts such as Eurozone concerns and China's lending conditions, continued through July.
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The economy had reasonable momentum in the first quarter of 2010, but hit a soft patch in the second quarter as certain factors took a more negative turn.
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Prompt action by the European Central Bank (ECB) helps to quiet rising concerns.
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The most recent financial crisis and subsequent recovery was an eye-opening experience for fixed income investors as their portfolios experienced unexpected volatility.
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Concern over Greece creates global volatility and uncertainty. At the end of 2009, Greece's deficit stood at approximately 12.5% of GDP - well over the 3% level permissible by the European Union (EU).
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Hartford Investment Management Company (HIMCO) is pleased to announce an important addition to our
investment management team today. Ray Humphrey has joined as Senior Vice President and Senior Portfolio
Manager.
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The first quarter of 2010 was characterized by modest growth, with real GDP likely to have grown 3% after having grown by 5.6% in the fourth quarter of 2009. Global growth picked up towards the end of the quarter as rising profits and improved asset prices prompted firms to increase capital expenditures.
Read More.
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The Investment Strategy Committee (ISC) is made up of seasoned investment professionals at Hartford Investment Management. Its role is to determine the firm's view on cyclical and secular trends in the macro-economy and to set the firm's top-down view on interest rates, yield curve and sector positioning.
Read More.
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Hartford Investment Management Company is pleased to announce that our parent company, The Hartford
Financial Services Group, Inc. (The Hartford), today announced that it has repurchased all of The Hartford's
preferred shares
Read More.
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The Investment Strategy Committee (ISC) is made up of seasoned investment professionals at Hartford Investment
Management. Its role is to determine the firm's view on cyclical and secular trends in the macro-economy and to set
the firm's top-down view on interest rates, yield curve and sector positioning.
Read More.
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Hartford Investment Management Company is pleased to announce that Donna Howe has joined the firm
as Chief Risk Officer, effective March 1. As a member of the senior leadership team, Donna will manage the
firm's risk management team and oversee the risk management process for all client portfolios.
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Treasury Infl ation-Protected Securities (TIPS) were designed to mitigate the risk of infl ation and its effects on the
purchasing power of an investor's capital, as the income they produce is directly linked to infl ation. While TIPS
have this unique advantage during infl ationary periods, they also typically exhibit a high degree of interest rate
risk due to their longer duration.
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We entered 2009 in the midst of the worst recession since the Great Depression. Jobs were being shed at an unprecedented rate in the post-war era while the global banking system was at best fragile and at worst on the brink of total collapse.
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Hartford Investment Management Company continues to strengthen its investment management capabilities with the hiring of Joseph Darcy as executive vice president and sector head of municipal finance. Darcy joined the firm January 25, 2010.
Read More.
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The Investment Strategy Committee (ISC) is made up of seasoned investment professionals at Hartford Investment
Management. Its role is to determine the firm's view on cyclical and secular trends in the macro-economy and to set
the firm's top-down view on interest rates, yield curve and sector positioning.
Read More.
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As of September 30, 2009, the bank loan market, as measured by the Credit Suisse Leveraged Loan Index, returned an astounding 39.77% year-to-date.
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Government programs have substituted for consumption and capital spending by corporations to provide a boost to US growth. The same narrative is unfolding worldwide.
Read More.
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Inflation expectations continue to recover from the very depressed levels we saw at the end of 2008 and the 1st Quarter of 2009.
Click here to view video.
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Over the past seven months, we have witnessed the biggest rally in the history of the bank loan market with the loan index up over 30% year to date (as of 7/31) as represented by the Credit Suisse Leveraged Loan Index.
Click here to view video.
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The role of diversification within an investment portfolio is to manage risk without sacrificing return. This is
generally achieved by combining a variety of uncorrelated equity and fixed income asset classes and holding
them through multiple economic cycles.
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For years, banks and other financial companies have used hybrid securities to raise regulatory capital.
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The technical or supply/demand environment remains supportive of prices and has been the main driver of higher prices over the last month.
Read More.
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For the average couple, few decisions are more important than choosing an allocation of financial assets that will get them to retirement and beyond.
Read More.
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Asset managers often try to put a floor under the price of stocks they hold, typicallyby buying "put options," which entitle the holder to sell a stock at a certain price by (or on) a certain date.
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The current financial crisis is the worst in nearly 80 years. Like most financial crises, it is characterized by a vicious cycle of rapidly declining asset prices and forced deleveraging.
Read More.
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